Category Archives: Statistical modeling

Modeling COVID-19 vaccination from a statistical perspective

In this post, I propose a statistical model that reproduces the evolution of the ongoing COVID-19 vaccination campaign in specific countries. With this model, users can test the effects of different vaccine production and delivery rates, the segmentation of the population into pro- and anti-vaccines, and the impact of social pressure on non-vaccinated people. We discuss some of the insights that the model is able to provide and some directions for future work that leverage the model capabilities.

Statistical dynamics of creep: a Monte Carlo model of materials and earthquakes (||)

This a follow-up post to a previous one. As explained there, it is clear that if we overload a structure, it will collapse intermediately. Nonetheless, structures loaded well-bellow their maximum capacity might eventually fracture by damage accumulation. This is especially dangerous in civil structures such as bridges and damns and has also been related to natural catastrophic events such as landslides, cliff collapses, and some earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
Here, we extend the Monte Carlo model of the previous post to allow it to simulate the approach to fracture.

Statistical dynamics of creep: a Monte Carlo model of materials and earthquakes (|)

It is clear that if we overload a structure, it will collapse intermediately. Nonetheless, structures loaded well-bellow their maximum capacity might eventually fracture by damage accumulation. This is especially dangerous in civil structures such as bridges and damns and has also been related to natural catastrophic events such as landslides, cliff collapses, and some earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. I implemented a stochastic model of plastic deformation based on the Kinetic Monte Carlo method able to shed light o this phenomenon…